vaultofthearchonfandomcom-20200214-history
109832-add-amp-ability-pt-unlocks-to-pve-challenge-bags
Content ---- ---- Other than rumors no one has ever shown any evidence of that being true. Even the various sites that keep track of that sort of thing don't show it coming from those | |} ---- my guildmate just told me he got one from index bag, yes i cant proove it, but even if its true, drop chance is waaaaaaaay to low. I also think that challanges are not the best way to include this. | |} ---- ---- Elder Gems should just work as backup system... not as the "one and only" source it nearly is atm | |} ---- ---- What kind of bag did you get it from, Ellz? tyvm for your response! | |} ---- ---- ---- ---- I don't have any arguments against amp/ability points. I simply pointed out that they APPEAR to be working as intended. Drop rates end up being higer than purchase rate with elder gems for a serious player. It's certainly possible that this isn't working as intended; but all indications from the devs and from EG price versus drop rate indicate it is working as intended. That is all. Nothing more nothing less. That said, all the arguments against the current Amp/ability point status quo seem to be 'I can't get these rare items fast; therefore BROKEN' which lets be honest; isn't actually an argument. | |} ---- I assume that means put them in 'PvE' bags? If so they are already in PvE bags (sack of scavenged materials) | |} ---- This, this statement is 100% wrong. They are no where near higher than elder gem purchase rate, they aren't even close. | |} ---- Reported drop rates are between ~ 0.1 & 0.02% generally. Using the lower end of those reported drop rates (0.02%) if you run Kel Voreth and clear 40 of the trash mobs each run, for 6 runs a day, for 5 days a week. You will get 1 amp / ability point drop every 2 weeks ON AVERAGE (if the above content is ALL you do). It takes 3 weeks worth of elder points to purchase one. Data is from Jabbithole, using a very conservative droprate reported for extra amp points (here: http://www.jabbithole.com/items/amp-power-upgrade-46542-2ndejb ) Like I said, it could very well NOT be working as intended; but the math suggests it at least is intentionally rare; but possible to aquire much faster than purchaes with EG for avid players. Best, Naz | |} ---- ---- You can get them from PvP bags at ~0.02% and greater drop rate http://www.jabbithole.com/items/amp-power-upgrade-46542-2ndejb | |} ---- Is that calculation based on how often a group will see a drop, or how often a player will win a drop? Because it doesn't seem right to me. | |} ---- ---- Not familiar with conservative estimates? I low balled the numbers to illustrate the point that they drop more frequently than can be purchased with out silly accusations of exaggeration. But since you decide to ignore that; then lets do it. If you wan't extra ability points; grind 1,000 Balehoof grazers a day for 5 days ( can kill a hundred in around 30-45 minutes; so about 5-7 hours of farming a day for 5 days. (x 5 x 2 * 0.0002 = 2 Ability tier points per 2 weeks = 1 Ability tier point per week on average for a player willing to farm for them. if you want extra amp points do the same thing for Zeta's. Frankly their drop rate is also likely closer to 0.02%... but Jabbithole is a little low on data, and so their drop rate is currently at 0.12%. We already know the drop rate if we use a realistic 0.02%; so lets try with the reported drop rate of 0.12% Same as above; but change drop rate to 0.0012 rather than 0.0002. And what do we get? (x 5 x 2 * 0.0012 = 12 Ability tier points per 2 weeks = 6 Amp points per week on average for a player willing to farm for them. As I said, that particular drop rate is likely inflated.. but even with the conservative rates it is still POSSIBLE to aquire the drops much more rapidly than from EG purchases given only the Elder Point conversions per week. And the potential to aquire items from drops more frequently than you can buy them with gems is the only real pre-req for an item's primary obtaining method to be drops. | |} ---- Called bad luck; and that's why the Elder Gem option is there. Remember drop rates are AVERAGE values, not set in stone absolute values. Roll a die and you have a 20% chance to roll each of the numbers on a face; roll a die 100 times and see how often you get each face. In practice it won't be 20% of the time because reasons... (reasons being statistical processes are stochastic/probabilistic, not deterministic). | |} ---- ---- Normal is 0.02% drop rates. Folks killing a reasonable number of mobs for a full time player each week can expect to see more amp / ability tier drops ON AVERAGE than they could buy with Elder gems in the same period. MMO's, like all computer games are just number games at their heart. Kill X mobs with Y chance to receive Z and you will have some sets of 3 weeks where you see no amps / ability points drop; and other sets of 3 weeks where you can see multiples drop. There was a poster on here a while back who claimed he got 2 ability points from bags in a single day... so honestly 'asking' around isn't the best, especially when the vast majority of casual players don't actually put the time / effort in needed to obtain them in the intended time frame. As for farming; I'm sure many players farm amp/ tier points. They are however, busy farming them, not on the forums. a 0.02% drop rate isn't low in the context of MMO's. | |} ---- It was one of those Sacks, might of been a pvp one or one of those reward loot bags you get from challenges. Sorry can't really remember what one, but i wouldn't hold your breath or go looking for them, just continue doing what you are doing and then hopefully you'll get lucky. Out of my guild I'm the 2nd person since launch (60 days + ) that has been so lucky to get one. | |} ---- ---- | |} ---- Those are horribly bad numbers your basing your arguments off of. a recorded 1/xxxxx is basically completely meaningless other than giving a sense of really really really rare less than 20-50 actual drops is not even close to painting a picture of the drop rate. Someone could have a lucky streak and get 2 in a row and skew the numbers hugely in favor of making it look more common, recorded kills could double without another drop making it look like 0.01% look up something that actually has a drop rate like sign of fusion - eldan it shows things like 2.5% based off 640/25868. That's enough drops to believe it and then basing an argument around a statement like "if you do nothing but grind for points for 6-8 hours a day you might just get super lucky and see one quicker than 3 weeks apart" If you can't see how dumb that sounds immediately don't even know what to say or your other one saying if you do 6 full clears of KV a day for 2 weeks you should see one drop and call that better. One drop among 5 people is not better Guess what? My guild has 4 people in it that are fully content just farming all day long while chatting in mumble. They literally do spend 4-6 hours farming every day and have hundreds of plat a piece doing it(one is in the thousands). They've been doing this for over 2 months and none of them have seen a drop We constantly have 2-3 vet runs going simultaneously all day long outside of raid times and have never seen a single one drop from any of those And then we have all the people grinding through daily zones or pvp matches You would think among 80 people farming and dungeon diving as much as humanly possible they would be seen on a somewhat regular basis by what you say but no one has seen even a single one Even the guy that has farmed himself into the thousands spams trade chat while he's at it offering 80p a piece and only found 4 that way They aren't just rare they are so over the top unobtainably rare that there's not even a point trying to brute force it. In fact one of the sellers got his AMP point as a drop from galeras at level 20. There's just no rhyme or reason to it | |} ---- Playin 2 Month every day and never seen one of this items drop is definitly an argument for broken drop rate. As the devs says, the EG System is a backup so the droprate must be high enough to get at least every ~ 2 weeks one of them by drop for an AVERAGE player, which isnt the case atm for most ppl. | |} ---- ---- So make it just 100% bop drop for gold and 10% bop drop for silver dungeons and of course every raidboss 100% easy fix wich rewards good players and still needs alot of time to complete. an item like that should not be dropped on an incredible low RNG factor. | |} ---- Nazryn, have you personally, or someone you know directly, gotten one from satchel of scavenged supplies? There is no data; that's why I don't personally believe they do come from these bags. There are vague urban legends of sometimes scavenged supplies, sometimes index of interesting items, and sometimes even the crafting bag heh.. which leads me to believe it doesn't exist on the drop table. Because else the chance so far has been 0/500,000 for scavenged supplies level ranges, 0/172,000 for index of interesting items, and 0/300,000 crafting. Like others have said, there is not enough data to get the true drop rates from enemies. Adding to the challenge bags is not a great solution, but it's 1) easy to accomplish 2) brings closer parity between pvp and pve rewards 3) gives some structure to the grind instead of just mindless slaughter A weekly quest would still take long, but then you're down to ~12 weeks including gem purchases, which would at least allow new players to enter the game and get caught up at some point, instead of always being inferior. It's the fix of choice but needs more man hours to be implemented. Personally I'm in favor of 8 bronze or better dungeons as the weekly quest to reward these unlocks. No time limit within the dungeon, and if you play a lot on the weekends you could still do it. | |} ---- umm i soory to tell you but the rate you keep spewing is 5 to 15 times lower than you think it is. edit: i used1 too many chained negatives. FIX'd | |} ---- I'm going to put aside your condescension and try to explain to you, like an adult does to a child, why you're wrong. First, the post of yours I was responding to dealt with mobs in vet dungeons. That's why I asked whether you were looking at group spot rates or individual win rates. If a group gets a single drop once every two weeks then an individual player would only expect to win the drop once every 10. I take it from your silence that it was the former, and that you've realized why your calculation was incorrect. Second, all your attempts to use jabbithole data to calculate drop rates are seriously flawed unless you think that only those 5 (or 7) mobs in the entire game can drop ability or amp points. That's because jabbithole doesn't include the thousands and thousands of other eligible mobs that were killed that didn't drop an ability or amp point. Example: Mobs 1-100 can all drop a rare item sense. The drop rate is 1/100,000. Jabbithole players go out and kill one thousand of each mob. One sense drops off of Mob 34. What does Jabbithole report? Well it sees that one sense dropped out of 1,000 kills of Mob 34, so it reports a drop rate of 1/1,000 off of Mob 34. Do you see how it skews it? It converted an actual drop rate of 1/100,000 into a reported drop rate of 1/1,000 because of the small sample size compared to the drop rate. | |} ---- You are missing one thing. It takes 8-9 weeks to basically insure a drop, but there is also a significant change that you will get multiple drops in 8 weeks. For example, to get exactly 1 drop in 8 weeks, there are 8 permutations. The exact probability of each permutation is the same at sucess x fail ^ 7. IE I fail 7 weeks, and I suceed 1 week, and there are 8 different weeks I could fail on. To get exactly 2 drops, I have 56 permutations. 8 possibilities for the first week I get a drop, and 7 possibilities for the second week I get a drop on. The probability for each permutation is sucess^2 * fail^6. For any given number of drops the permutations is N!/((N-X)!*X!), where N is the number of weeks spend farming, and X is the number of drops received. The probability for each individual permutation is S^X*(1-S)^(N-X), S is the probability of success, N in number of weeks farming, and X is number of successful drops. The exact distrubution for 8 weeks of farming 0 drops = 0.03% 1 drops = 0.46% 2 drops = 2.77% 3 drops = 9.52% 4 drops = 20.46% 5 drops = 28.14% 6 drops = 24.18% 7 drops = 11.88% 8 drops = 2.55% Most likely, you get 5 drops from 8 weeks of farming. Of course this is assuming that the drop rate Nazryn is using is correct. | |} ---- Good caveat. His drop rates are not correct. See above for more details. Basically, it's the equivalent of asking a lottery winner: "How many tickets did you buy before you won?" And then using that number as the likelihood of winning the lottery. The data doesn't include all the people who bought tickets but didn't win. | |} ---- Actually, I was crunching the number, and you are correct. Jabbithole data can not be used that way. Example, I have an item that has a 10% chance to drop on a global table. For every 10 kills that have a chance of giving me a drop I make, I get a probability that looks like this. 0 drops = 34.87% 1 drops = 38.74% 2 drops = 19.37% 3 drops = 5.74% 4 drops = 1.12% Stopping there because the rate drops below 1%. So If I go out and kill 10 of of 10 different creatures, my Jabbithole data will look like this Creature A,B,C -> Jabbithole says it doesn't drop Creature D,E,F,G -> Jabbithole says is has a 10% drop rate Creature H, I -> Jabbithole says it has a 20% drop rate Creature J -> Jabbithole says it has a 30% drop rate I can't go and look at the data for creature J and use that as my probability, I have to average the drop rate across all kills from every single creature it could possibly drop from. We simply do not know where on the bell curve that drop that Nazryn is using sits. There could be 20 other creatures with 300,000 kills each that have the same chance to drop an AMP point, but never have. | |} ----